Property

The Great Australian Dream: Is Property Still Worth It in 2026?

A no-bullshit look at whether buying a home still makes sense, or if renting is the smarter play.

Published by NoBS Finance · 15 July 2026 · 8 min read

Key Takeaways

The old property playbook of buy, hold, and watch it double assumed falling interest rates and rising prices. That environment has changed.
The real question is whether property will outperform alternatives like shares after accounting for all holding costs.
Buying wins when you plan to stay 10+ years, can service the mortgage comfortably, and are in a growth market.
Renting and investing the difference is a legitimate strategy, not throwing money away.
Run the numbers for your specific situation rather than following the cultural script.

The Great Australian Dream

Let's be honest. Every Aussie mum, dad, and their dog has an opinion on property. But the conversation has changed. The old playbook does not work the way it used to, and the numbers tell a different story now.

The Old Playbook

For 30 years, the playbook was simple: buy a house, hold it, watch it double every 7 to 10 years. Negative gearing, capital gains discount, rinse and repeat. It worked. Spectacularly. But that was in an environment of falling interest rates, rising population, and limited supply.

What Is Different Now

Interest rates are not at 0.1% anymore. The RBA cash rate has moved significantly from pandemic-era lows
Borrowing capacity is lower than it was at the peak.
Price growth in Sydney and Melbourne has slowed or plateaued in recent periods
Regional areas boomed during COVID as remote work drove people out of capitals, and many of those markets are now settling

The Real Question

It is not "will property go up?" It is "will it go up MORE than the alternatives?"

Hypothetical example: If you borrow $800,000 at 6.2% interest, you are paying roughly $49,600 per year in interest alone. For property to beat index funds returning 8% to 10% per year over the long term, your home needs to appreciate by more than your total holding costs (interest, rates, insurance, maintenance, strata) every single year. This is a hypothetical example for illustration only.

Property has holding costs that shares do not. Rates, insurance, maintenance, strata fees, and agent fees all eat into your return. When you compare property to shares, you need to account for all of these costs, not just the purchase price and the sale price.

When Buying Wins

You plan to stay in the property for 10 or more years. Transaction costs (stamp duty, agent fees) are significant and take years to amortise
You value stability and control over your living space
You can service the mortgage comfortably, ideally keeping housing costs under 30% of net income. Not sure how much that actually is? Work out how much mortgage you can really afford before you commit.
You are in a market with strong population growth and limited new supply

When Renting Wins

You value flexibility and mobility. If you might move for work within 5 years, buying rarely makes sense
You can invest the difference between rent and mortgage costs into shares or ETFs. Over long periods, this can match or exceed property returns
You are in an expensive market where rent yields are low relative to mortgage costs. In some Sydney and Melbourne suburbs, renting is significantly cheaper per month than owning
You might need to move for family, work, or lifestyle reasons

The Bottom Line

Property is not dead. But it is not the guaranteed wealth generator it was for your parents. The returns depend on location, timing, interest rates, and holding costs. Run the numbers for your situation, not the cultural script. And do not let anyone tell you that renting is throwing money away. Paying rent for a home you can leave at any time, while investing the difference, is a legitimate strategy.